The GOP struggles with the social media generation, but a few are starting to figure it out, especially Governor Chris Christie
It's no secret that the GOP has been playing catch-up to the massive social media machine built by Obama campaign for years. (The Romney campaign's deficiencies in that regard were well-documented.) As the Republican party grapples with the large-scale demographic shifts ahead, we thought it might be revealing to see how the 2016 GOP frontrunners have approached the more granular social media. Social media interactions, after all, are much more like old-fashioned politicking than they are like "messaging": too much polish works against you, humor is at a premium, and the real skill isn't convincing people so much as working the crowd. So it makes sense to us to ask who's winning the Twitter Primary.
There's more to social media than Twitter, of course. But as the political class grows more and more desperate for metrics to measure a race that hasn't even begun, it makes sense to turn to Twitter: that's where the journalists hang out, so that's where a candidate's image will or won't get the extra spit shine that only comes with being very good at this very new form retail politics.
Our field, in order of total number of followers (analytics from Twitonomy and Twtrland):
*1. Donald Trump @realdonaldtrump *
- 2.5m followers
- Following: 43 (Notable: Steven Tyler, Magic Johnson)
- 16.4 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post: "Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate"
- Most frequently used hashtag: #trump2016
- Most mentioned user: @realdonaldtrump
- Percentage of feed devoted to direct responses: 21%
- Does he actually write the posts? Almost certainly. No employee could have skin so thin.
- Typical tweet: Quoting something nice someone else said about him or a promotion of a Trump-branded property.
"@tnaps85: If Donald Trump is our next president, America will be saved-ith and all will be well in the world. Amen and alleliua" True!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 22, 2014
- *He said what?*
Always leave your ego at the door during negotiations. Remember, it's only business and there will always be another day!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 29, 2014
One gets a sense of what The Donald's feed is like just from the numbers: egocentric (he's his own most-mentioned user and tweets four times as much as other possible nominees) and delusional ("#trump2016"). He has a miniscule follower-to-following ratio, suggesting that he uses Twitter almost solely as a broadcast medium … and to see what people are saying about him. His high response rate is misleading: a good portion of his "responses" are manual re-tweets of praise from obscure corners of the Internet (see above). The rest of his responses are attacks on media outlets that have criticized him.
*2. Senator Marco Rubio @marcorubio*
- 504k followers
- Following: 3k (Notable: lefty outlet @salon and, for real, @ipricku, a "piercing, modification and jewelry company")
- .79 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post:
#GOPResponse #SOTU #gop #tcot pic.twitter.com/3hxtgdbP
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) February 13, 2013
- Most frequently used hashtag: #sayfie (for The Sayfie Review, a Florida political news aggregator)
- Most mentioned user: @barackobama
- Percentage of tweets that are responses: 9%
- Does he write the posts? Maybe not the itinerary-driven ones announcing appearances and endorsements, but the ones about sports and various religious holidays are so boring and earnest they have to be by the boss. An employee would try harder.
- Typical Tweet: Subject-verb-object-level simple agenda items or sports commentary. Least exciting live-tweeting of Miami Heat games you'll ever read. "Testified today about need to prevent #obamacare #bailout".
- *He said what?*
I actually like the new @MiamiDolphins logo. pic.twitter.com/vvCMKWux1K
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 28, 2013
Rubio's Twitter feed is appropriately safe and people-pleasing, a perfect reflection of Rubio's chosen path to the nomination: Don't cause too much of a scene, attract just enough attention to show how humble you are… and mercilessly attack Barack Obama from every possible angle. He shows an occasional awe-shucks-style self-effacing sense of humor but mostly sticks to non-controversial topics. That Rubio follows a body-modification salon suggests someone in his office has a sense of humor but I'm not sure it's Rubio.
*3. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie @govchristie*
- Followers: 426K
- Following: 568
- Tweets per day: 4.6
- Most re-tweeted post:
If conditions are not safe on Wednesday for Trick or Treating, I will sign an Executive Order rescheduling #Halloween.
— Governor Christie (@GovChristie) October 30, 2012
- Most mentioned user: @govchristie (second: @springsteen)
- Percentage responses: 27%
- Does he write the posts? Unlikely. I imagine they'd be more entertaining if he did – indeed, the posts often are just links to video clips of Christie being Christie. His charm does not, perhaps, translate very well to the abbreviated Twitter form. The feed is, however, in keeping with Christie's personality – or at least its best parts: expansive, good-natured, service-oriented. Senator Cory Booker may have started the trend of Twitter-as-bat-signal, but Christie carries it on: he responds directly to users who ask about road closings and repair work.
- Typical Tweet: At home watching this snow fall? Send your pics! #PAX #NJSnowDay
- *He said what?*
In a choice between being with my wife on her birthday or Senator Rand Paul, I choose my wife. http://t.co/PWNciI0SBy
— Governor Christie (@GovChristie) September 3, 2013
Don't let the loose and friendly feel of Christie's feed fool you: there is a tight hand on the reins, which is most obvious in how successful Christie has been in avoiding any kind of Twitter awkwardness. There are few regrettable re-tweets and no controversies, unless you count his being friendly Obama a controversy. It's a masterful display of discipline cloaked by nonchalance, which may be the essence of Christie's success. No wonder he was the popular guy in high school: you have to want to win without ever looking like you're trying too hard.
*4. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul @senrandpaul*
- 398k followers
- Following: 325 (Notable: Kevin Spacey, James Woods)
- 1.6 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post:
. @BarackObama sent 7 security guards to #WWIIMemorial this AM to keep out our vets. Sadly, that is 2 more than were present in Benghazi.
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) October 2, 2013
- Most frequently used hashtag: #tcot ("top conservatives on Twitter")
- Most mentioned user: @FoxNews
- Percentage responses: 5%
- Does he write the posts? Again, he may not type up and send out his own schedule items, but the feed itself is exactly as idiosyncratic and passionate as Senator Paul has shown himself to be otherwise, right down to his 2013 Festivus "airing of grievances." (Fellow Senator Cory Booker offered to participate in the traditional "feat of strength") He is given to dramatic rhetorical flourishes that a staffer would probably not risk.
- Typical tweet: No one, no matter how wise, can determine the "correct" price of bread without a marketplace.
- *He said what? *
Turtle tunnels. Squirrel sanctuaries. Look it up.
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) December 23, 2013
Paul's feed is worth following just for fun, a rare quality in the political Twittersphere. Though his low response percentage makes it seem like he's using Twitter to mainly to broadcast, like Trump, the replies he does make seem like genuine attempts at conversation, if not debate (he is most likely to engage with @reason, a Libertarian magazine). The Festivus celebration was borderline brilliant, a clever way to repackage GOP whining as a pop culture event.
*5. Texas Senator Ted Cruz @tedcruz*
- 233k followers
- Following: 19k (Notable: Jimmy Kimmel)
- 5.4 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post:
Retweet if you want answers! #SOTU #MakeDCListen pic.twitter.com/gxphn9WA3O
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) January 29, 2014
- Most frequently used hashtag: #txsen
- Most mentioned user: @tedcruz
- Percentage responses: 9%
- Does he write the posts? Cruz is so stiff and mannered in person, it could be that his dutiful Twitter feed is just a genuine reflection of his personality. But I suspect he delegates actual tweeting to staff (a sure sign of this: most of his tweets come from the desktop application Tweetdeck rather than a mobile device). There are spurts of legitimate cleverness, though they have the same homework-y feel as the endorsements and announcement of media appearances. Likes to hi-jack ancient memes for random assaults on Obama. "You keep using that word".
- Typical tweet: Retweet if you or someone you know lost their health insurance or faces higher premiums because of #Obamacare
-* He said what? *
We are grateful for the rich history the Jewish culture brings to the US & world. I hope you have a blessed Hanukkah http://t.co/kgjX5RGpfx
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) November 27, 2013
If Rubio's feed is careful, Cruz's is tightly wound: it adheres to a consistent combination of personal promotion interspersed with reproach and mocking of the Obama administration. I would not be surprised if there was a bot doling out the posts to a specific formula, right down to the very occasional mention of his family (they exist!). Perhaps the most bizarre thing about Cruz's feed is what's not on it: he makes almost no mention of sports – not even college football, which is as close to a state religion as Texas has. He does have a lot of pictures of himself hunting. (In Iowa, no less!) Cruz's preference for solo shooting over the communal experience of team athletics is a pretty good metaphor for his political career, if anyone's looking for one.
*Who's the winner in the top conservative on Twitter race?*
Governor Chris Christie. To my mind, the hands-down leader in the Twittocracy is the same one that's at the top of the polls. He doesn't have the most followers of the top tier candidate, but he does have the highest interaction percentage – over a quarter of his tweets are replies to those who have tweeted at him. What's more, he leads field in both the proportion of tweets related to policy or governance and in "personal" tweets—his most active days have been when he's either solicited pictures of New Jersians "snow days" or when he's used to Twitter to parse out policy announcements. His showy bipartisanship and service-y alerts buttress the same image that has, until recently, made him such an appealing candidate overall. The cute animal pictures also don't hurt. Reported by guardian.co.uk 2 hours ago.
It's no secret that the GOP has been playing catch-up to the massive social media machine built by Obama campaign for years. (The Romney campaign's deficiencies in that regard were well-documented.) As the Republican party grapples with the large-scale demographic shifts ahead, we thought it might be revealing to see how the 2016 GOP frontrunners have approached the more granular social media. Social media interactions, after all, are much more like old-fashioned politicking than they are like "messaging": too much polish works against you, humor is at a premium, and the real skill isn't convincing people so much as working the crowd. So it makes sense to us to ask who's winning the Twitter Primary.
There's more to social media than Twitter, of course. But as the political class grows more and more desperate for metrics to measure a race that hasn't even begun, it makes sense to turn to Twitter: that's where the journalists hang out, so that's where a candidate's image will or won't get the extra spit shine that only comes with being very good at this very new form retail politics.
Our field, in order of total number of followers (analytics from Twitonomy and Twtrland):
*1. Donald Trump @realdonaldtrump *
- 2.5m followers
- Following: 43 (Notable: Steven Tyler, Magic Johnson)
- 16.4 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post: "Stop congratulating Obama for killing Bin Laden. The Navy Seals killed Bin Laden. #debate"
- Most frequently used hashtag: #trump2016
- Most mentioned user: @realdonaldtrump
- Percentage of feed devoted to direct responses: 21%
- Does he actually write the posts? Almost certainly. No employee could have skin so thin.
- Typical tweet: Quoting something nice someone else said about him or a promotion of a Trump-branded property.
"@tnaps85: If Donald Trump is our next president, America will be saved-ith and all will be well in the world. Amen and alleliua" True!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 22, 2014
- *He said what?*
Always leave your ego at the door during negotiations. Remember, it's only business and there will always be another day!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 29, 2014
One gets a sense of what The Donald's feed is like just from the numbers: egocentric (he's his own most-mentioned user and tweets four times as much as other possible nominees) and delusional ("#trump2016"). He has a miniscule follower-to-following ratio, suggesting that he uses Twitter almost solely as a broadcast medium … and to see what people are saying about him. His high response rate is misleading: a good portion of his "responses" are manual re-tweets of praise from obscure corners of the Internet (see above). The rest of his responses are attacks on media outlets that have criticized him.
*2. Senator Marco Rubio @marcorubio*
- 504k followers
- Following: 3k (Notable: lefty outlet @salon and, for real, @ipricku, a "piercing, modification and jewelry company")
- .79 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post:
#GOPResponse #SOTU #gop #tcot pic.twitter.com/3hxtgdbP
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) February 13, 2013
- Most frequently used hashtag: #sayfie (for The Sayfie Review, a Florida political news aggregator)
- Most mentioned user: @barackobama
- Percentage of tweets that are responses: 9%
- Does he write the posts? Maybe not the itinerary-driven ones announcing appearances and endorsements, but the ones about sports and various religious holidays are so boring and earnest they have to be by the boss. An employee would try harder.
- Typical Tweet: Subject-verb-object-level simple agenda items or sports commentary. Least exciting live-tweeting of Miami Heat games you'll ever read. "Testified today about need to prevent #obamacare #bailout".
- *He said what?*
I actually like the new @MiamiDolphins logo. pic.twitter.com/vvCMKWux1K
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) March 28, 2013
Rubio's Twitter feed is appropriately safe and people-pleasing, a perfect reflection of Rubio's chosen path to the nomination: Don't cause too much of a scene, attract just enough attention to show how humble you are… and mercilessly attack Barack Obama from every possible angle. He shows an occasional awe-shucks-style self-effacing sense of humor but mostly sticks to non-controversial topics. That Rubio follows a body-modification salon suggests someone in his office has a sense of humor but I'm not sure it's Rubio.
*3. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie @govchristie*
- Followers: 426K
- Following: 568
- Tweets per day: 4.6
- Most re-tweeted post:
If conditions are not safe on Wednesday for Trick or Treating, I will sign an Executive Order rescheduling #Halloween.
— Governor Christie (@GovChristie) October 30, 2012
- Most mentioned user: @govchristie (second: @springsteen)
- Percentage responses: 27%
- Does he write the posts? Unlikely. I imagine they'd be more entertaining if he did – indeed, the posts often are just links to video clips of Christie being Christie. His charm does not, perhaps, translate very well to the abbreviated Twitter form. The feed is, however, in keeping with Christie's personality – or at least its best parts: expansive, good-natured, service-oriented. Senator Cory Booker may have started the trend of Twitter-as-bat-signal, but Christie carries it on: he responds directly to users who ask about road closings and repair work.
- Typical Tweet: At home watching this snow fall? Send your pics! #PAX #NJSnowDay
- *He said what?*
In a choice between being with my wife on her birthday or Senator Rand Paul, I choose my wife. http://t.co/PWNciI0SBy
— Governor Christie (@GovChristie) September 3, 2013
Don't let the loose and friendly feel of Christie's feed fool you: there is a tight hand on the reins, which is most obvious in how successful Christie has been in avoiding any kind of Twitter awkwardness. There are few regrettable re-tweets and no controversies, unless you count his being friendly Obama a controversy. It's a masterful display of discipline cloaked by nonchalance, which may be the essence of Christie's success. No wonder he was the popular guy in high school: you have to want to win without ever looking like you're trying too hard.
*4. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul @senrandpaul*
- 398k followers
- Following: 325 (Notable: Kevin Spacey, James Woods)
- 1.6 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post:
. @BarackObama sent 7 security guards to #WWIIMemorial this AM to keep out our vets. Sadly, that is 2 more than were present in Benghazi.
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) October 2, 2013
- Most frequently used hashtag: #tcot ("top conservatives on Twitter")
- Most mentioned user: @FoxNews
- Percentage responses: 5%
- Does he write the posts? Again, he may not type up and send out his own schedule items, but the feed itself is exactly as idiosyncratic and passionate as Senator Paul has shown himself to be otherwise, right down to his 2013 Festivus "airing of grievances." (Fellow Senator Cory Booker offered to participate in the traditional "feat of strength") He is given to dramatic rhetorical flourishes that a staffer would probably not risk.
- Typical tweet: No one, no matter how wise, can determine the "correct" price of bread without a marketplace.
- *He said what? *
Turtle tunnels. Squirrel sanctuaries. Look it up.
— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) December 23, 2013
Paul's feed is worth following just for fun, a rare quality in the political Twittersphere. Though his low response percentage makes it seem like he's using Twitter to mainly to broadcast, like Trump, the replies he does make seem like genuine attempts at conversation, if not debate (he is most likely to engage with @reason, a Libertarian magazine). The Festivus celebration was borderline brilliant, a clever way to repackage GOP whining as a pop culture event.
*5. Texas Senator Ted Cruz @tedcruz*
- 233k followers
- Following: 19k (Notable: Jimmy Kimmel)
- 5.4 tweets per day
- Most re-tweeted post:
Retweet if you want answers! #SOTU #MakeDCListen pic.twitter.com/gxphn9WA3O
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) January 29, 2014
- Most frequently used hashtag: #txsen
- Most mentioned user: @tedcruz
- Percentage responses: 9%
- Does he write the posts? Cruz is so stiff and mannered in person, it could be that his dutiful Twitter feed is just a genuine reflection of his personality. But I suspect he delegates actual tweeting to staff (a sure sign of this: most of his tweets come from the desktop application Tweetdeck rather than a mobile device). There are spurts of legitimate cleverness, though they have the same homework-y feel as the endorsements and announcement of media appearances. Likes to hi-jack ancient memes for random assaults on Obama. "You keep using that word".
- Typical tweet: Retweet if you or someone you know lost their health insurance or faces higher premiums because of #Obamacare
-* He said what? *
We are grateful for the rich history the Jewish culture brings to the US & world. I hope you have a blessed Hanukkah http://t.co/kgjX5RGpfx
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) November 27, 2013
If Rubio's feed is careful, Cruz's is tightly wound: it adheres to a consistent combination of personal promotion interspersed with reproach and mocking of the Obama administration. I would not be surprised if there was a bot doling out the posts to a specific formula, right down to the very occasional mention of his family (they exist!). Perhaps the most bizarre thing about Cruz's feed is what's not on it: he makes almost no mention of sports – not even college football, which is as close to a state religion as Texas has. He does have a lot of pictures of himself hunting. (In Iowa, no less!) Cruz's preference for solo shooting over the communal experience of team athletics is a pretty good metaphor for his political career, if anyone's looking for one.
*Who's the winner in the top conservative on Twitter race?*
Governor Chris Christie. To my mind, the hands-down leader in the Twittocracy is the same one that's at the top of the polls. He doesn't have the most followers of the top tier candidate, but he does have the highest interaction percentage – over a quarter of his tweets are replies to those who have tweeted at him. What's more, he leads field in both the proportion of tweets related to policy or governance and in "personal" tweets—his most active days have been when he's either solicited pictures of New Jersians "snow days" or when he's used to Twitter to parse out policy announcements. His showy bipartisanship and service-y alerts buttress the same image that has, until recently, made him such an appealing candidate overall. The cute animal pictures also don't hurt. Reported by guardian.co.uk 2 hours ago.